To readers of the following article:
Taleb, Nassim N., Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel (2009). The six mistakes executives make in risk management. Harvard Business Review, 87(10), 78-81.
The Harvard Business Review editors of this article introduced an error on page 81 during the editing process. As a result, what was published is mathematically incorrect. The erroneous version that HBR printed stated on page 81:
"You are on vacation in a foreign country and are considering flying a local airline to see a special island. Safety statistics show that, on average, there has been one crash every 1,000 years on this airline. It is unlikely you'll visit this part of the world again. Would you take the flight?"
In the original text, Taleb, Goldstein and Spitznagel quoted the problem given to participants as follows:
"You are on vacation in a foreign country and are considering flying the national airline to see a special island you have always wondered about. Safety statistics in this country show that if you flew this airline once a year there would be one crash every 1,000 years on average. If you don't take the trip, it is extremely unlikely you'll revisit this part of the world again. Would you take the flight?"
Readers should refer only to the version Taleb, Goldstein, and Spitznagel submitted.
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